2022-01-20 General

Transmission I found this article interesting. They modelled two air flights and got pretty good agreement with reality. On the first flight, early enough in the pandemic that people weren’t wearing masks, one infected passenger on a 12-hour flight in business class got 12 people sick. On the second flight, four infected passengers on a… Continue reading 2022-01-20 General

2022-01-14 General

Variants This report says that Omicron is much much more likely than Delta to cause a sore throat, but much much less likely to cause loss of smell. Transmission This article reports on a study which says that 10% of people are still infectious for at least ten days. Genetics This article reports that scientists… Continue reading 2022-01-14 General

2022-01-11 General

Variants This preprint says that Omicron is less virulent than Delta: ~50% less likely to get admitted to hospital from the emergency room; ~75% less likely to go to the ICU; ~70% shorter hospital stay. Note that something I’m seeing is people not seeing a shorter hospital stay in the UK, e.g. in this tweet.… Continue reading 2022-01-11 General

2022-01-07 General

Vaccines This preprint from the UK found that boosters help against symptomatic infection, but also wane: dose1&2 dose3 VE at 2-4 weeks VE at 5-9 weeks VE at >10 weeks AZ+AZ Pfizer 62-65% 48% 32% AZ+AZ Moderna 62-65% 56% N/A Pfizer+Pfizer Pfizer 65% 49% 31% Pfizer+Pfizer Moderna 70% 57% N/A However, protection against severe disease… Continue reading 2022-01-07 General

2022-01-06 General

Variants This preprint looks at the effectiveness of a COVID-19 infection (as opposed to a vaccination) against future COVID unpleasantness: Variant against infection against hospitalization or death Alpha 90.2% 69.4% Beta 84.8% 88.0% Delta 92.0% 100% Omicron 56.0% 87.8% This preprint says that most people have a quite good T-cell response to Omicron after a… Continue reading 2022-01-06 General

2021-12-29 General

Variants There continue to be studies in test tubes and lab rodents which all show pretty convincingly that Omicron does not infect the lungs as well as previous versions. This preprint says that T cells from vaccination still have 70-80% of their protection against Omicron (which is probably why breakthrough cases are mild). Transmission This… Continue reading 2021-12-29 General

2021-12-25/26/27/28 General

Variants There has been difficulty figuring out how badly Omicron is going to hit the hospital system first because it is a lagging indicator, second because Omicron affects vaccinated and unvaccinated people so differently, and third because of poor-quality data around the holidays. Still, there are hints that, as this tweet from New York says,… Continue reading 2021-12-25/26/27/28 General