Vaccines This article reports that NACI now says that you should wait three months after getting COVID-19 before you get a booster. It’s not bad, it’s just that three months will give you better protection, they think. Note that they don’t actually have any data on the COVID-19 booster specifically, they are basing that advice… Continue reading 2022-02-04 General
Category: Transmission
2022-02-02 General
Happy Twosday! Transmission This article reports on the results of the first human challenge trial (meaning: deliberate infection) of COVID Classic. You’re going WAIT WHAT? HOW COULD THAT POSSIBLY PASS ETHICS REVIEW? This happened in the UK (so different ethics boards), and they did work hard to minimize potential harm to the subjects (like making… Continue reading 2022-02-02 General
2022-02-01 General
Vaccines This study in Israel of people over 60 found that the risk of infection dropped in half after their fourth dose of vaccine; the risk of severe illness dropped by a fourth. Note that this sounds really good, but the study was only in people over 60, and there’s no information on waning. Pathology… Continue reading 2022-02-01 General
2022-01-29/30/31 General
Vaccines There’s a great, long Twitter thread which looks at the effect of vaccines. (It summarizes a paywalled article, if you want to see the whole thing.) One of the elements which I found striking was how the risk of COVID-19 relative to the flu has dropped over time. In mid 2020, the infection fatality… Continue reading 2022-01-29/30/31 General
2022-01-28 General
Variants I don’t like to warn about variants before there’s data. (I didn’t sound alarms about Mu, for example.) Well, I think it’s time to talk about BA.2 — an Omicron variant. (The Omicron variant which sprouted up first is BA.1.) BA.2 doesn’t look like it is lot worse than BA.1 — not like Delta… Continue reading 2022-01-28 General
2022-01-20 General
Transmission I found this article interesting. They modelled two air flights and got pretty good agreement with reality. On the first flight, early enough in the pandemic that people weren’t wearing masks, one infected passenger on a 12-hour flight in business class got 12 people sick. On the second flight, four infected passengers on a… Continue reading 2022-01-20 General
2022-01-14 General
Variants This report says that Omicron is much much more likely than Delta to cause a sore throat, but much much less likely to cause loss of smell. Transmission This article reports on a study which says that 10% of people are still infectious for at least ten days. Genetics This article reports that scientists… Continue reading 2022-01-14 General
2022-01-12 General
Transmission Yesterday in the BC blog post, I gave a bunch of evidence for Omicron being a very “pointy” wave, fast up and fast down. Wastewater evidence from the eastern USA is also pointing to fast-up/fast-down. From this tweet, the wastewater SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in Boston: And from this tweet, the surveillance in New Haven, CT:… Continue reading 2022-01-12 General
2022-01-11 General
Variants This preprint says that Omicron is less virulent than Delta: ~50% less likely to get admitted to hospital from the emergency room; ~75% less likely to go to the ICU; ~70% shorter hospital stay. Note that something I’m seeing is people not seeing a shorter hospital stay in the UK, e.g. in this tweet.… Continue reading 2022-01-11 General
2022-01-07 General
Vaccines This preprint from the UK found that boosters help against symptomatic infection, but also wane: dose1&2 dose3 VE at 2-4 weeks VE at 5-9 weeks VE at >10 weeks AZ+AZ Pfizer 62-65% 48% 32% AZ+AZ Moderna 62-65% 56% N/A Pfizer+Pfizer Pfizer 65% 49% 31% Pfizer+Pfizer Moderna 70% 57% N/A However, protection against severe disease… Continue reading 2022-01-07 General