Variants This preprint looks at the effectiveness of a COVID-19 infection (as opposed to a vaccination) against future COVID unpleasantness: Variant against infection against hospitalization or death Alpha 90.2% 69.4% Beta 84.8% 88.0% Delta 92.0% 100% Omicron 56.0% 87.8% This preprint says that most people have a quite good T-cell response to Omicron after a… Continue reading 2022-01-06 General
Category: Transmission
2021-12-29 General
Variants There continue to be studies in test tubes and lab rodents which all show pretty convincingly that Omicron does not infect the lungs as well as previous versions. This preprint says that T cells from vaccination still have 70-80% of their protection against Omicron (which is probably why breakthrough cases are mild). Transmission This… Continue reading 2021-12-29 General
2021-12-25/26/27/28 General
Variants There has been difficulty figuring out how badly Omicron is going to hit the hospital system first because it is a lagging indicator, second because Omicron affects vaccinated and unvaccinated people so differently, and third because of poor-quality data around the holidays. Still, there are hints that, as this tweet from New York says,… Continue reading 2021-12-25/26/27/28 General
2021-12-14 General
Variants According to this Twitter thread, which reported on a press conference in South Africa, Omicron now accounts for 90% of the cases in South Africa. (Note: it might not be displacing Delta, there might still be just as many Delta cases as before — I don’t now — but a huge number of Omicron… Continue reading 2021-12-14 General
2021-12-11/12/13 General
Testing This report says that rapid tests are really inaccurate (they compared to PCR). This Twitter thread summarizes, but the brand I just picked up in the US misses half of symptomatic cases and a quarter of asymptomatic cases. (They say you should test multiple times, which if the failures are randomly distributed, should drop… Continue reading 2021-12-11/12/13 General
2021-12-08/09/10 General
I was out of town for a few days. I think this mostly catches up. Variants This press release from Pfizer says that three doses of Pfizer will give reasonable protection against infection with Omicron, but two doses isn’t enough. Two doses should still protect against severe disease. This Twitter thread on a report from… Continue reading 2021-12-08/09/10 General
2021-12-01 General
Transmission This article has some really cool pictures of some really really cool science. The study authors made a chemical/mechanical computer model of a virion inside an aerosol with water, lung fluid, mucous, and other crap that somebody might breathe out — 1.3 BILLION atoms worth — and then simulated it every millionth of a… Continue reading 2021-12-01 General
2021-11-30 General
Mitigation Measures This article describes tightened border controls in Canada in response to the threat of Omicron: Nigeria, Malawi and Egypt have been added to the list of restricted countries (South Africa, Mozambique, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Eswatini were already on the list). Those who have been to any of their home countries in… Continue reading 2021-11-30 General
2021-11-23 General
Mitigation Measures I have heard that it is critically important for masks to fit well to be useful, yet most of the people I see wearing masks have big obvious gaps in them. How could these possibly work? And yet, clearly they do. In addition to multiple studies showing mask-wearing reduces cases, pretty much every… Continue reading 2021-11-23 General
2021-11-18 General
Treatments This article talks about the good long-term results of AstraZeneca’s polyclonal antibody (brand name Evusheld). The article says it’s a two shot therapy like a vaccine, and given pre-exposure gives 83% protection over six months, sort of like a vaccine. Unlike a vaccine, however, it should work just as well in people who are… Continue reading 2021-11-18 General