2021-05-07 BC


As I mentioned briefly yesterday, there was a leak of BC CDC data. Looking through it, there are a few things that stand out.

OMG. The yellow line is the % of cases in that Community Health Service Area, with the blue lines being the % of population for that CHSA. OMG, Surrey has about 29% of the cases with only about 10% of the population. Langley had 3% of the population and 8% of the cases. (By and large, other CHSA’s case counts are roughly in line with their population, except of course for the Island, which is under-represented).

I found this set of graphs very hopeful: it shows the expected case rate by day for each Health Authority. This modelling was done taking vaccinations into account. It shows that regardless of how much people increase or decrease their contacts, the number of hospitalizations is trivial by the end of June. Woohoo!!

Vaccinate vaccinate vaccinate!


Justin McElroy updated his graph on the vaccination rate:

Update looks good.

Right now, 48.6% of the former eligible pool has been vaccinated, woot! I can’t include the recently-added 12-15 year-olds because the demographics never include them as a separate group, but if I guess that there are 250K of them, then 45.8% of the currently-eligible population has been vaccinated, or 40% of the population.

They are trying to get people in hotspots to get vaxxed again, opening up bookings to those 30+ in hotspots. Because the pop-ups worked so poorly, this time they are taking appointments for the hotspot areas, and using postal codes to determine eligibility. Now, that’s only going to work if the postal codes get checked at the clinics: the people calling in to make appointments could lie. We’ll see how well this works.


This article reports that BC lost jobs in April, the first time since April 2020.


Today: +722 cases, +7 deaths, +43,353 first doses, +3,593 second doses.

Currently 445 in hospital / 157 in ICU, 6757 active cases, 125,799 recovered.

We have 400,098 doses in the fridges, which we’ll use in 11 days at last week’s rate. We’ve given more doses than we had on hand 8 days ago.

We have 350,451 mRNA doses in fridges, which we’ill use in 10.7 days at last week’s rate. We’ve given more mRNA doses than we had gotten by 4 days ago.

We have 49647 AZ doses in the fridges, which we’ll use up in 13.0 days at last week’s rate.


C’mon, pub health! Dix has been talking about how much vax we could deliver if we only had the supply. We have the supply now, DELIVER!