People have wondered to me if we’ll be able to ramp up to vaccinate to keep pace with even the big cohorts . I think so. The back-of-the-envelope calculations I have made say it’s possible. The biggest cohort we have in BC is the 356K 40-44 year-olds. That’s about 50k per day (if we give shots 7 days per week), which is about 1% of the BC population per day if 100% of the 40-44 year-olds wants a shot.
The US is vaccinating almost 0.73% of its eligible population per day right now; the UK is vaccinating about 0.79% of its eligible population per day, and Israel peaked at about 2.1% per day. So it will be a bit of a stretch, but not impossible.
Will we have supply? I think so. We are getting more and more vax all the time. With just what I know about — which doesn’t count the the the 1.9M Canada is pulling out of COVAX, the doses we will eventually get directly from AZ and J&J — we’re going to have ~2.3M doses by 1 May. And vaccine manufacturers in the USA say they are able to ramp up significantly now because of what they have learned. If they learn in the USA, they should be able to transfer that know-how to their European plants that we get our vax from.