2021-06-05/06 BC

Vaccinations

A lot of you are probably wondering when you are going to get your second dose. Team AZ is probably wondering how long you’ll have to wait if for an mRNA if you turn down AZ.

I made some SWAGs.

Dose1 dateAZ Dose2mRNA Dose2
2021-03-222021-06-082021-06-10
2021-03-292021-06-102021-06-16
2021-04-052021-06-102021-06-20
2021-04-122021-06-132021-06-23
2021-04-192021-06-162021-06-27
2021-04-262021-06-202021-07-01
2021-05-032021-06-232021-07-05
2021-05-102021-06-242021-07-09
2021-05-172021-06-252021-07-15
2021-05-242021-06-252021-07-20
2021-05-312021-06-252021-07-26

This assumes 11K AZ doses per day, that 25% of the Team AZ will want mRNA for their second dose, 58K mRNA doses per day, that there will be a 50:50 split of first:second doses until we run out of people who want the vax, and that 3,657,141 will take first doses, and 92% of the people who get first doses will take second doses.

NB: Other assumptions I made that I only realized later:

  • That vaccines are uniformly available, which is probably not true. The Vancouver Convention Centre will probably always have more vaccination slots available than a community Centre in Nelson.
  • That pharmacies start giving doses immediately on Monday June 7.

I have a more detailed table which I made that has three different cases (fastest, nominal, slowest) for both AZ and mRNA, for each date instead of only Mondays, if you demand more data.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *