2021-06-24 BC

Variants

Yesterday, I mentioned that BC is having a much less difficult time with Delta than the UK is. Partly it’s that we caught it earlier (so that our pub health teams are succeeding in quashing it), partly it’s because we’re more thoroughly vaxxed.

One thing I didn’t mention yesterday is that Pfizer’s effectiveness is ~88% against Delta, while AZ’s is ~60%, and the UK has used much more AZ than we have. (I can’t find data for how much has gone into arms, but I found that the UK government ordered 40M Pfizer, 7 Moderna, and 100M AZ.)

60% vs 88% is actually quite a bit. That means Pfizer is almost 1.5x as effective as AZ against Delta. Delta is about 1.5x more contagious than Alpha. The math probably doesn’t work out exactly this way, but I am thinking that everybody vaxxed with Pfizer and fighting a Delta outbreak is comparable to everybody vaxxed with AZ and fighting an Alpha outbreak. In other words: good enough.

Statistics

Today: +75 cases, +3 deaths, +11,820 first doses, +70,114 second doses.

Currently 113 in hospital / 34 in ICU, 1,111 active cases, 144,466 recovered.

First doseSecond dose
of adults81.5%24.6%
of over-12s76.0%24.2%
of everybody69.2%22.0%

NB: The province’s calculation are wrong for adults. They numbers they give imply a different denominator for first and second doses. I think the first second dose population (4.3M) is more correct than the first dose population (4.5M), so I’m using 4.3M in both of my “of adults” calculations.

We have 947,993 (!!!) doses in fridges; we’ll use it up in 16.0 days at last week’s rate. We’ve given more shots than we’d received by 6 days ago.

We have 867,355 mRNA doses in fridges; we’ll use it up in 14.6 days at last week’s rate. We’ve given more shots than we’d received by 6 days ago.

We have 80,638 AZ doses in fridges; we’ll use it up in 22.7 days at last week’s rate.

Charts

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