Vaccine Milestones/Statuses

Timeline

See also the WHO’s timeline for the pandemic.

I estimated the approval dates in the section above based on the Pfizer and Moderna timelines or I found an official giving an estimate:

(NB: I include the US’ FDA approval times because times are similar to the Canadian approval times.) It took ~4.5 months for Pfizer’s COVID vaccine and 5 months for Moderna from start to finish of the trial.  Note that is really fast for a clinical trial, and was possible only because there were so many cases of COVID-19.  (The faster people get sick, the faster you can see a difference between the control group and the vaccine group.)  Subsequent trials might actually be faster because there is even more transmission.

The Providence Therapeutics might get through its vaccine trials quickly, but

  • They are a new company bringing up a new factory, so even if their vaccine gets approved as quickly as Moderna and Pfizer got theirs approved, I’m guessing that they would not be able to pump out high volumes of vaccine right away.
  • They might face some challenges doing their stage 3 trial because by the time they are ready to go to Phase 3 trials, many people in developed countries (i.e. ones where doing vaccine studies is easy) will have been vaccinated already.
BrandPh3 startInterim resultsPh3 endApproved (est)
Pfizer2020-07-272020-11-092020-11-182020-12-09
Moderna2020-07-272020-11-162020-11-302020-12-23
AstraZeneca / Oxford2020-08-23 [2]various2021-02-26 
Janssen2021-01-292021-02-042020-02-05
Novavax2020-11-302021-01-28 [1]2021-03-12, 2021-06-142021-04-03 2021-04-13
2021-06-31
2021-12-31
2021-07-30
2021-11-01
Medicago2021-03-162021-07-152021-09-01?late June 2021?
early Fall?
Sanofi/GSK2021-09-01?2022-02-01?
July 2021?
Early 2022?

[1] Novavax declared interim results from their Ph3 trials on 2021-01-28, as if the Ph3 trials were over, but then they declared the Ph3 trials over on 2021-03-12. I don’t understant.


See also the New York Times’ vaccine tracker for good information on all the vaccines which have gotten at least to Phase 1 human trials.

Hilda Bastain has a very in-depth look at all the vaccine trial results.