Variants According to this Twitter thread, which reported on a press conference in South Africa, Omicron now accounts for 90% of the cases in South Africa. (Note: it might not be displacing Delta, there might still be just as many Delta cases as before — I don’t now — but a huge number of Omicron… Continue reading 2021-12-14 General
Category: Variants
2021-12-08/09/10 General
I was out of town for a few days. I think this mostly catches up. Variants This press release from Pfizer says that three doses of Pfizer will give reasonable protection against infection with Omicron, but two doses isn’t enough. Two doses should still protect against severe disease. This Twitter thread on a report from… Continue reading 2021-12-08/09/10 General
2021-12-07 General
A lot of highly technical material dropped today, on a day when I was kind of busy, so I have not had enough time to really understand everything. AND information about Omicron is still in flux. So if you don’ t understand something here, it’s not just you. Also, there will probably not be postings… Continue reading 2021-12-07 General
2021-12-04/05/06 General
Variants I referenced a preprint on Friday which said that Omicron’s doubling time was 1.2 days, but everybody else seems to be saying more like 2.5 days. This makes a difference: ten doublings (which is about 1000x) is either 12 days away or 25, which means before Christmas or after Christmas. Either way, don’t plan… Continue reading 2021-12-04/05/06 General
2021-12-03 General
Variants I had been hearing that Omicron had a doubling rate of something like 5 days. I finally went and scraped the data for Guateng province — which is only like two-thirds Omicron right now — and calculated a doubling time of 3.1 days. Then this preprint came out (which probably has information about just… Continue reading 2021-12-03 General
20211202 General
Variants I’m seeing a lot of news stories saying things along the lines of “don’t panic, Omicron might not be as 1) lethal, 2) immune-evasive, 3) contagious as you think!” #1: For the stories about the severity of the disease, note that South Africa’s population is a LOT younger than most of the developed world… Continue reading 20211202 General
2021-11-27/28/29 General
Variants The news has been almost “all Omicron all the time”, crowding out almost all other COVID-19 stories. (Spoiler: the answer is “they don’t know yet”.) Omicron has been found in lots of countries now, including Canada, Israel, Netherland, Australia, and 12 other countries. This article quotes a South African doctor as saying that the… Continue reading 2021-11-27/28/29 General
2021-11-26 General
Variants This article talks about the race to contain B.1.1.529, now formally named Omicron (not Nu). This article reports that Pfizer/BioNTech say that they will know in under two weeks how effective their vax is against Omicron, and that they can have a revamped shot done in 100 days. Moderna says they’ve been working on… Continue reading 2021-11-26 General
2021-11-25 General
Variants Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuck. Remember how yesterday I wrote this totally depressing analysis of how hard it was going to be to vaccinate our way out of this mess with our current vaccines? It just got harder. There’s a new variant under investigation — B.1.1.529 — with thirty fucking two mutations. People who I follow and respect… Continue reading 2021-11-25 General
2021-11-19 General
Vaccines This article reports that Health Canada and NACI have approved the pediatric Pfizer vaccine for 5-11 year olds! Interestingly, NACI says that kids should space the influenza and COVID-19 vaccinations, not because they shots are less effective, but because if there is an adverse effect, they want to be able to tell which shot… Continue reading 2021-11-19 General