Happy New Year! Measures In the USA, the US CDC decided that five days was enough time to isolate. Per this tweet, five days later, the number of COVID-19 transmissions in hospitals went up: In BC, we just dropped to five-day isolation (as long as you have no symptoms). It would be interesting to see… Continue reading 2022-01-01/02/03/04 General
Category: General
2021-12-31 General
It was a slow news day. Everything was more of the same: Omicron is milder, with half as many hospitalizations per case; cases are doubling every 2-4 days depending on the jurisdiction, hospitals are straining in many jurisdictions, health care workers are losing their minds. Recommended Reading This article talks how, frustrated with the slow… Continue reading 2021-12-31 General
2021-12-30 General
Mitigation Measures This article says that people can now apply for the federal Canada Worker Lockdown Benefit of up to $300/week, retroactive to 19 Dec. Variants This report from Ontario Public Health says that, after adjusting for vaccination status, the risk of severe illness from Omicron is 54% that from Delta. This preprint (from August)… Continue reading 2021-12-30 General
2021-12-29 General
Variants There continue to be studies in test tubes and lab rodents which all show pretty convincingly that Omicron does not infect the lungs as well as previous versions. This preprint says that T cells from vaccination still have 70-80% of their protection against Omicron (which is probably why breakthrough cases are mild). Transmission This… Continue reading 2021-12-29 General
2021-12-25/26/27/28 General
Variants There has been difficulty figuring out how badly Omicron is going to hit the hospital system first because it is a lagging indicator, second because Omicron affects vaccinated and unvaccinated people so differently, and third because of poor-quality data around the holidays. Still, there are hints that, as this tweet from New York says,… Continue reading 2021-12-25/26/27/28 General
2021-12-24 General
This is short because Happy Christmas Eve! Testing This paper from October says that there is 1.7x variation in PCR test results over the course of a day, with 2pm being the time when an infected person will have the highest viral load. This article says that it’s not legal for you to redistribute rapid… Continue reading 2021-12-24 General
2021-12-23 General
Variants I have been frustrated with some of the talk around Omicron’s virulence, and this tweet made me realize what my problem was: we shouldn’t be talking about THE virulence (usually expressed as the Case Hospitalization Rate or CHR) as a single number. There is a different CHR for the general population (the observed virulence)… Continue reading 2021-12-23 General
2021-12-22 BC/General
I am going to take the rest of the day off as a mental health break. Brief bits from what I have already seen: UK had 100K cases yesterday, which sounds like an unimaginatively huge number until you realize that’s ~6K cases/day when adjusted for the different population — which is only two doublings from… Continue reading 2021-12-22 BC/General
2021-12-21 General
Variants More qualified good news: this preprint out of South Africa says that Omicron is only 70% as likely to send someone to the hospital as Delta. All the same caveats I’ve made previously apply, though. This Twitter thread does an estimate of the Case Hospitalization Rate (CHR) in New South Wales, Australia. This is… Continue reading 2021-12-21 General
2021-12-18 General
I knew this was coming. I knew this was coming. I knew this would be bad. I predicted that the health care system might collapse in multiple jurisdictions in the West. I’m still somewhat shocked at the ferocity and this wave. There are lots of people saying that Omicron is milder than previous variants (see… Continue reading 2021-12-18 General