2026-07-10 General

There are a number of places around the world which are starting to see an increase in cases, e.g. Thailand, Philippines, Taiwan, parts of Australia, and parts of the USA. They are starting from a very low base, but infectious diseases can spread exponentially. 😕

I would like to point out that the BC Provincial Spring Vaccination campaign will finish on 31 July (and I think that’s when the doses expire, also). In the past few years, our summer wave has peaked in early October and the fall vax campaign starts in mid-October. If you want to get a vaccination in BC before October, the next three weeks are your only chance.

NB: If you are not in one of the recommended groups for COVID-19 vaccinations — basically elderly and medically vulnerable — you can still get one, but you need to call the Get Vaccinated hotline at 833/838-2323.

Multiple Pathogens

Transmission

🔥😷 Remember the Pasedena fires in early 2025? 100,000 people had to be evacuated. 1700 people were sheltered at the Pasadena Convention Center by the second night. This report (2026-07-09) says that in the next few weeks, there were (at least) 104 cases of norovirus, 56 of COVID-19, 29 of influenza, and 30 of nonspecified respiratory illness among residents and staff members. The shelter staff did get their act together eventually — setting up isolation rooms, using disinfectants which actually killed norovirus, handwashing more, and improved disease surveillance — which reduced the infection rate. (They didn’t appear to do anything about air filtration or mask wearing, sigh.)

The moral of the story is that if you ever have to evacuate, take a mask!

Testing

This paper from Toronto (2026-07-06) reports that using an onsite rapid PCR tester instead of offsite PCR tests for COVID-19/RSV/influenza in nursing homes was helpful. (I believe the device was something like the Metrix or PlusLife test, although they didn’t specify what machine they used.)

Onsite testing did not reduce deaths or cases, but did reduce the risk of a hospitalization by 11%. The differences between the onsite testing cohort and the offsite testing cohort were:

  • speed of result (which led to prescribing antiviral faster);
  • in the onsite testing cohort, they tested close contacts of infected people three days after exposure to someone with a confirmed case;
  • about twice as much testing.

While the case numbers and deaths weren’t significantly different between onsite and offsite testing cohorts, that might be a false result: there was twice as much testing with the onsite unit, so it might be that the onsite unit just identified cases which the control wards might have missed.

They also labeled any hospitalization or death in the offsite testing cohort which happened during the study period as a suspected respiratory disease case — even though people go to the hospital and/or die for non-respiratory events like stroke, heart attack, falls, etc.

COVID-19

Long COVID

💊 This paper from Japan (2026-05-25) reports that adults hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 had a 71% higher risk than hospitalized controls of any Long COVID-associated symptoms during followup if they received corticosteriods. The increased risks three months later included:

  • muscle weakness: +173% higher risk;
  • numbness: +234% higher risk;
  • shortness of breath: +99% higher risk;
  • joint pain: +163% higher risk.

Note that this doesn’t mean that you should never give corticosteroids to COVID-19 patients: corticosteroids are really good at keeping you from dying from COVID-19 in the hospital.

COVID-Related Excess Death and Sickness

👁️ This study from Sweden (2026-07-08) reports that people can have persistent occular symptoms and vision loss after COVID-19 infections. At least some of the symptoms appear to be from nerve damage. 😬

♿️ This is US data, and not new, but it’s something that I think people should stay aware of. The rate of new disability claims doubled after the COVID-19 pandemic started and it has stayed at that rate. From the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis:

Vaccines

💉This paper from USA (2026-05-11) says that before the LP.8.1 booster, boosters had always strengthened the response to COVID Classic response more than to any other variant, presumably because of immunological imprinting. They report that the LP.8.1 booster, however, improved the response to LP.8.1 and XFG more than to COVID Classic. They also reported that protection had a half-life of a little over two months.

Pathology

This paper using UK data (2026-07-09) reports that the all-cause mortality risk was about three times higher after hospitalization for COVID-19 than hospitalized controls without a documented COVID-19 infection.

People with a documented COVID-19 infection didn’t have a greater overall mortality risk after their acute phase than controls, but they did have a higher risk of external mortality (which I beleive basically means accidents, homicide, and suicide). (The study looked at data from January 2020 through December 2022, so there were still a fair number of people who had not yet gotten COVID-19.)

BC Wastewater

Wastewater looks like it is actually ticking up a little bit.

💩💧 From Jeff’s wastewater spreadsheet with data through 24 July:

Influenza

Vaccines

💉This paper from USA (2026-07-06) reports that the vaccine effectiveness against death from 2016 through 2025 was 87% for children with no known underlying medical conditions, and 80% for children with comorbidities.

Vaccinate your kids!

RSV

Pathology

🫁 This paper from USA (2026-06-29) reports that after adjusting for age and sex, people with a high risk condition (HRC) were 62% more likely to get an RSV lower respiratory tract infection (acute bronchitis, acute exacerbations of chronic bronchitis and pneumonia). The risk was 117% higher for those aged 18 to 49 with one or more HRCs than for the same age group without an HRC.

High risk conditions were defined as: cardiac arrhythmias, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cystic fibrosis, diabetes (type I or Il), chronic liver disease, chronic kidney disease, congenital immunodeficiency disorders, immunosuppressive medications, cancer (solid or hematologic), and/or solid organ transplant.

Measles

Transmission

According to the Government of Canada Measles and Rubella Monitoring Report (updated 2026-07-07), in the week ending 27 June 2025, the following jurisdictions had the following number of new measles cases:

  • Canada: 4;
  • Manitoba: 3;
  • Quebec: 1.