Effectiveness Against COVID Classic*

This is mostly against COVID Classic or unspecified. There are a few studies against Delta, and someday if I get excited, I will move those to the non-Omicron VOC page. For now, this is kind of a “mothball” page to keep old data around in case I need it. In other words, I am not likely to get excited about updating it.

Where there were studies which looked at effectiveness against COVID Classic vs. other variants of concern, those are at the Vaccine Effectiveness against Pre-Omicron VOCs page.


This review article from 25 September 2021 has a very exhaustive list.

BrandAgainstWhereFirst shot+MSecond Shot+N
PfizerinfectionIsrael45%92%
Pfizerinfection2Israelx94%
Pfizerinfection3Israel57%79%
PfizerinfectionIsrael / HCW52·4%90.5%
PfizerinfectionUK / HCW72%86%
PfizersymptomaticIsrael /HCW85%
Pfizersymptomatic2Israel57%94%
Pfizersymptomatic3Israelx97%
PfizerhospitalizationIsrael74% 87%
PfizerhospitalizationScotland85%
Pfizersevere diseaseIsrael62%92%
PfizerdeathIsrael72%N/A
mRNAsasymptomaticUSA79%80%
PfizertransmissibilityIsrael91%
AZsymptomaticSouth Africa B.1.351x10.6%
AZsymptomaticScotland94%
NovavaxsymptomaticB.1.351x55.4%
NovavaxsymptomaticUKx89.3%
SinopharmsymptomaticChinax78.1%
SinopharmhospitalizationBahrain, UAE, Egypt, Jordanx78.7%
Sinopharm?Bahrainx90%
CoronaVacsymptomaticTurkeyx83.5%
CoronaVachospitalizationTurkeyx100%
CoronaVacsymptomaticChilex67%
CoronaVachospitalizationChilex85%
CoronaVacdeathChilex80%
CoronaVacsymptomaticChile16.3%66.7%
CoronaVachospitalizationChile36.7%84.8%
CoronaVacICUChile42.7%88.6%
CoronaVacdeathChile40.23%80.44%
CoronaVacsymptomaticIndonesiax65.3%
CoronaVacsymptomaticBrazilx51%
CoronaVachospitalizationBrazilx100%
CoronaVacsub-hospitalizationBrazilx83.7%
CoronaVacinfectionBrazil / Sao Paolox51.8-70%
PfizerinfectionSouth Korea89.7%x
AZinfectionSouth Korea86.0%x
Pfizerhospitalization over 80 y/oUK81%93%
AZhospitalization over 80 y/oUK73%x
Pfizer or AZhospitalization over 70 y/oUK84%81%
PfizerdeathUK80%97%
AZdeathUK80%
Johnson & JohnsoninfectionUSA76.7%N/A
Johnson & Johnsonmoderate illnessUSA72%N/A
Johnson & JohnsoninfectionSouth Africa52%N/A
Johnson & Johnsonmild to moderate illnessSouth Africa64%N/A
Johnson & Johnsonsevere illnessSouth Africa82%N/A
Johnson & Johnsonmoderate illnessBrazil66.2%N/A
Johnson & Johnsonmild to moderate illnessBrazil68%N/A
Johnson & Johnsonsevere illnessBrazil88%N/A
AZinfectionUK (B117)65%?
PfizerinfectionUK (B117)65%70%
PfizerinfectionEngland (B117)70%85%
SinovacdeathsIndonesia HCWx98%
SinovacinfectionIndonesia HCW13%94%
Pfizer or ModernainfectionOntario48-71%91%
Pfizer or ModernasevereOntario62-91%98%
Sputnik Vsymptomatic infection ages 60-79Argentinax78.6%
Sputnik Vhospitalization ages 60-79Argentinax87.6%
Sputnik Vdeaths ages 60-79Argentinax84.7%
mRNAany infectionUS HCW (CDC)81%91%
CureVacinfection (prelim)49%
Soberanainfection? dose 2 out of 3 PRELIMCuba?62%
Abdalainfection? 3 out of 3 PRELIMCuba?92.3%
NovavaxinfectionMexico, US90%
Pfizerhospitalization of over 80 y/osUK79·3%N/A
AZhospitalization of over 80 y/osUK80·4%N/A
CoronaVacinfectionChile15.5%65.9%
CoronaVachospitalizationChile37.4%87.5%
CoronaVacICUChile44.7%90.3%
CoronaVacdeathChile45.7%86.3%
Pfizerall asymptomaticIsrael HCW65.1%
Pfizerinfectious asymptomaticIsrael HCW69.6%
Pfizerall symptomaticIsrael HCW89.7%
Pfizerinfectious symptomaticIsrael HCW88.1%
AZasymptomatic infection in high-risk groupsEngland60%81%
Pfizersymptomatic infection in high-risk groupsEngland60%
Pfizersymptomatic infection in high-risk groups over 65England89%
AZsymptomatic infection in high-risk groups over 65England80%
AZ/Pfizersymptomatic infection in immunosuppressedEngland4%74%
Pfizersymptomatic in age 16-64UK48.6%93.3%
AZsymptomatic in age 16-64UK50.2%78.0%
Pfizersymptomatic in age 65+UK56.6%86.7%
AZsymptomatic in age 65+UK60.9%76.4%
Pfizersymptomatic in immunosuppressedUK15.9%73.0%
AZsymptomatic in immunosuppressedUK43.9%74.6%%
mRNAhospitalization, allUS86.9%
mRNAhospitalization, 18-49 y/oUS97.3%
mRNAhospitalization in immunosuppressedUS59.2%
Pfizerasymptomatic infection in pregnantIsrael67%, 71%97%
Pfizersymptomatic in pregnantIsrael66%, 76%97%
Pfizerhospitalization in pregnantIsrael89%
Pfizersymptomatic in all veteransUS84.0%96.25
Modernasymptomatic in all veteransUS85.7%98.2%
AZsymptomaticAlberta61%88%
ModernasymptomaticAlberta81%92%
PfizersymptomaticAlberta75%90%3
Pfizer 6 month studysymptomatic 7 days to 2 months post dose2US / South Africa / Brazil / Argentina / Germany / Turkey91.1%96.2%
Pfizer 6 month studysymptomatic at 4-6 months post dose2US / South Africa / Brazil / Argentina / Germany / Turkey83.7%
Pfizer
6 month study
severeUS / South Africa / Brazil / Argentina / Germany / Turkey96.7%
AZasymptomatic to household contactsNetherlands58%
Pfizerasymptomatic to household contactsNetherlands70%
Modernaasymptomatic to household contactsNetherlands88%
J&Jasymptomatic to household contactsNetherlands77%
CoronaVacinfectionChile65.9%
CoronaVachospitalizationChile87.5%
CoronaVacICUChile90.3%
CoronaVacdeathChile86.3%
mRNAhospitalizationUSA89%
mRNAICUUSA90%
J&JhospitalizationUSA68%
Modernaasymptomatic infectionSouthern California72.7%
Modernasymptomatic infectionSoCal88.3%
ModernahospitalizationSoCal95·8%
ModernadeathSoCal97.9%
SinovacdeathMalaysia82.3%90.44%
PfizerdeathMalaysia88.2%97.25%
AZdeathMalaysia75.9%99.42%
Johnson & Johnsoninfection, corrected for under-reportingUSA79%
Johnson & Johnson infection, not corrected for under-reportingUSA69%
Johnson & Johnsonhospitalization, corrected for under-reportingUSA81%
Johnson & Johnsonhospitalization, not corrected for under-reportingUSA73%
Johnson & Johnsonsymptomatic infectionUSA94%
Johnson & Johnsonsymptomatic infectionworld outside USA75%
Johnson & Johnsonhospitalizationmany countries100%
Pfizersymptomatic infectionUSA, health care workers77.6%88.8%
Modernasymptomatic infectionUSA, health care workers88.9%96.3%
CloverinfectionPhilippines, Colombia, South Africa, Brazil, Belgium79%
CloverhospitalizationPhilippines, Colombia, South Africa, Brazil, Belgium100%
Moderna5-month followup, asymptomatic infectionUSA, high-risk individuals63.0%
Moderna5-month followup, symptomatic infectionUSA, high-risk individuals93.2%
Moderna5-month followup, severe diseaseUSA, high-risk individuals98.2%
mRNAhospitalization, 65-79 y/osPortugal78%94%
mRNAhospitalization, over 80 y/oPortugal55%82%
mRNAdeath, 65-79 y/osPortugal77%96%
mRNAdeath, over 80 y/osPortugal56%81%
AZICU or death[1]Malaysia96%
PfizerICUMalaysia92%
PfizerdeathMalaysia93%
SinovacICUMalaysia77%
SinovacdeathMalaysia84%
Pfizerinfection after 1 monthCalifornia88%
Pfizerinfection after 5 monthsCalifornia47%
Pfizerinfection after 16 weeksNorth Carolina81%91%
Novavaxsymptomatic infectionUSA / Mexico90.4%
Novavaxhospitalization / ICU / deathUSA / Mexico100%
AZdeath, 40-60 y/oScotland88%
Pfizerdeath, 40-60 y/oScotland95%
AZdeath, over 60 y/oScotland90%
Pfizerdeath, over 60 y/oScotland87%
AZdeath, all agesScotland90%
Pfizerdeath, all agesScotland91%
Pfizerinfection, 12-17 y/oIsrael66%90%
Pfizersymptomatic infection, 12-17 y/oIsrael82%93%
Modernainfection, male prisonersCalifornia56.6%
Modernasymptomatic infection, male prisonersCalifornia84.2%
mRNAinfectionBritish Columbia90%
mRNAinfection Quebec88%
AZinfectionBritish Columbia71%
AZinfectionQuebec73%
AZ+mRNAinfectionBritish Columbia90%
AZ+mRNAinfectionQuebec87%
mRNAhospitalizationBritish Columbia98%
mRNAhospitalizationQuebec97%
AZhospitalizationBritish Columbia94%
AZhospitalizationQuebec94%
AZ+mRNAhospitalizationBritish Columbia99%
AZ+mRNAhospitalizationQuebec98%
mRNAinfection given 3-4 week dose intervalBritish Columbia85%
mRNAinfection given 3-4 week dose intervalQuebec79%
mRNAinfection given 7-8 week dose intervalBritish Columbia91%
mRNAinfection given 7-8 week dose intervalQuebec89%
mRNAinfection given 3-4 week dose intervalBritish Columbia and Quebec93%
mRNAinfection given 7-8 week dose intervalBritish Columbia and Quebec99%
Covaxinsymptomatic infectionIndia77.8%
Covaxinsevere diseaseIndia93·4%
Covaxinsymptomatic infection, hospital staff, from DeltaIndia50%
Soberana 02symptomatic infectionCuba71%
Soberana 02severe diseaseCuba63%
Soberana 02deathCuba59%
Soberana 02 with Soberana Plussymptomatic infectionCuba92.4%
Soberana 02 with Soberana Plussevere diseaseCuba100%
Soberana 02 with Soberana PlusdeathCuba100%
MedicagoinfectionCanada/US71%
mRNAinfection of military veteransUSA69%
mRNAdeath of military veteransUSA86%
Pfizerhospitalization for 12-18 y/osUSA (23 states)94%
PfizerICU for 12-18 y/osUSA (23 states)98%
Pfizerdeath for 12-18 y/osUSA (23 states)100%
Novavaxinfection for 12-17 y/osUSA79.5%.

[1] In Malaysia, AZ is mostly given to younger people, which potentially makes it look better than it is.

Information about various studies:

See also https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1393449636216639492

This article compares Moderna and Pfizer, though TBH I think they are close enough to not worry about.