Variants
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuck. Remember how yesterday I wrote this totally depressing analysis of how hard it was going to be to vaccinate our way out of this mess with our current vaccines? It just got harder.
There’s a new variant under investigation — B.1.1.529 — with thirty fucking two mutations. People who I follow and respect are very worried. This article has some info, this article has this graph:
This Twitter thread talks about why it is likely to be more vax-evasive.
It is so concerning that the World Health Organization is calling an impromptu emergency meeting to discuss it, and they are already talking about giving it a Greek letter.
The one encouraging thing is that people are taking it seriously.
Pathology
This study of people who were infected with COVID-19 twice found that:
- Reinfections were 90% less likely to lead to hospitalization as the first cases.
- People who have been infected once (but are currently uninfected) have 1% the chance of getting hospitalized with COVID-19 in the future as someone who has never been infected.
(The study didn’t talk about vaccines, but I presume from context that they didn’t include vaccinated people.)
Vaccines
This study in the UK compared people who were less than 90 days from their vaccination to those who had longer times since their vaccination:
| time since vax | greater risk of positive COVID test vs <90 days |
| 90-119 days | 2.37x |
| 120-150 days | 2.66x |
| >150 days | 2.82x |